Learning Prediction Intervals for Model Performance
نویسندگان
چکیده
Understanding model performance on unlabeled data is a fundamental challenge of developing, deploying, and maintaining AI systems. Model typically evaluated using test sets or periodic manual quality assessments, both which require laborious labeling. Automated prediction techniques aim to mitigate this burden, but potential inaccuracy lack trust in their predictions has prevented widespread adoption. We address core problem uncertainty with method compute intervals for performance. Our methodology uses transfer learning train an estimate the predictions. evaluate our approach across wide range drift conditions show substantial improvement over competitive baselines. believe result makes intervals, general, significantly more practical real-world use.
منابع مشابه
Prediction Intervals for Performance Prediction
The Predictive Performance Equation (PPE) is a mathematical model of learning and forgetting developed to capture performance effectiveness across training histories, and to generate precise, quantitative point predictions of performance by extrapolating the unique mathematical regularities indicative of the learner. This equation is implemented in the Predictive Performance Optimizer (PPO) cog...
متن کاملPavement performance prediction model development for Tehran
Highways and in particular their pavements are the fundamental components of the road network. They require continuous maintenance since they deteriorate due to changing traffic and environmental conditions. Monitoring methods and efficient pavement management systems are needed for optimizing maintenance operations. Pavement performance prediction models are useful tools for determining the op...
متن کاملDiscriminative Learning of Prediction Intervals
In this work we consider the task of constructing prediction intervals in an inductive batch setting. We present a discriminative learning framework which optimizes the expected error rate under a budget constraint on the interval sizes. Most current methods for constructing prediction intervals offer guarantees for a single new test point. Applying these methods to multiple test points results...
متن کاملPrediction Intervals
Computing prediction intervals (P.I.s) is an important part of the forecasting process intended s i to indicate the likely uncertainty in point forecasts. The commonest method of calculating P.I. s to use theoretical formulae conditional on a best-fitting model. If a normality assumption is t o used, it needs to be checked. Alternative computational procedures that are not so dependen n a fitte...
متن کاملPrediction Intervals for Multilevel Models
There are many methods for constructing prediction intervals for differences in observations. This document will explain several of these methods in the context of different models using data from a kiwi yield experiment as an example. 1. KIWI DATA In an experiment (discussed in more detail in class), kiwi yields were measured in a designed experiment. There were three blocks (north, east, and ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2159-5399', '2374-3468']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v35i8.16897